From 80 to 100: Indonesia’s Next 20 Years Will Define Everything.
The Illusion of Progress
Many professionals pride themselves on having “10 – 20 or 30 years of experience.” But often, what they really have is one year of experience repeated ten, twenty and thirthy times. The same applies to nations. Indonesia, now, going to 80 years old, risks falling into the same loop: a repetition of habits, policies, and frameworks that no longer serve the future.
In this piece, we challenge the assumption that longevity equals advancement. Instead, we argue that progress demands more than time—it requires reinvention.
The Echo Chamber of Experience
Indonesia’s policymaking elite, much like many senior executives, often mistake time-in-position for wisdom. The average tenure of senior officials in key ministries is over 10 years, according to the Indonesian Civil Service Agency (BKN), with some directors serving for more than 15 years. This longevity might suggest expertise, but in practice, it often leads to recycling the same formulas, preaching the same slogans, and citing tenure as credibility.
A 2023 study by LIPI (now BRIN) found that over 65% of policy memos in economic ministries reused language and frameworks from previous administrations, rarely introducing new paradigms. Meanwhile, the World Bank has noted that Indonesia’s budget absorption rates have changed little in two decades, hovering between 80–90% since 2000, with few lessons learned or innovations implemented. Experience without evolution is just inertia in a suit.
As good old Einstein reminded us: “Madness is doing the same thing over and over, but expecting different results.” The same applies here—repeating the same actions, using the same templates, the same wording, the same gimmicks, yet expecting exponential growth. Repeating the logic of budget absorption for decades without questioning its effectiveness doesn’t make us seasoned—it makes us stuck.
Why the Future Punishes Linear Thinking
Linear thinking assumes tomorrow will be a mild extension of today. It dismisses black swans, underestimates compounding change, and ridicules disruptive thinking. Indonesia’s over-reliance on outdated templates—like budget absorption logic or debt fueled economics—has blinded us to both threats and opportunities. While Indonesia’s GDP per capita (PPP) has grown from $9,300 in 2013 to $13,200 in 2023, the quality of that growth remains shallow, with over 60% of jobs still in the informal sector, according to BPS. In energy, despite being an exporter of coal and nickel, Indonesia imports over 60% of its crude oil, creating a fragile trade balance whenever oil prices spike.
And in capital deployment, less than 5% of Indonesia’s state assets generate measurable return—while over 70% of government spending still flows through rigid budget absorption cycles rather than investment multipliers. This obsession with managing what we already have—rather than designing what we need—has left us vulnerable.
When we mistake predictability for resilience, we stop innovating. And when we stop innovating, the future doesn’t wait. It punishes us for staying the same.
Experience vs. Insight: A National Blindspot
Insight is the ability to synthesize, to question, and to see beyond the visible. Experience is just mileage. Indonesia’s institutions are dominated by experience: as of 2024, over 40% of senior civil servants have served more than 20 years in government, according to the Indonesian Civil Service Agency (BKN). On the boards of Indonesia’s top 20 state-owned enterprises (BUMN), the average director’s age is 56, with over 70% having previously served on other SOE boards—a clear pattern of recycling rather than refreshing leadership, as reported by the Ministry of SOEs.
Yet, very few are rewarded for insight. In a 2023 survey by LIPI/BRIN, less than 12% of senior policymakers said their promotions were linked to innovation or problem-solving; the overwhelming majority cited tenure, loyalty, or compliance with established procedures as the main criteria. Meanwhile, Indonesia ranks 87th out of 132 countries in the Global Innovation Index, lagging behind regional peers like Malaysia and Vietnam, a sign that experimentation and cross-domain synthesis are not systemically encouraged.
Where are the incentives for truth-seeking, experimentation, or cross-domain synthesis? The system favors loyalty to old methods, not clarity of vision—and the numbers reveal just how deep that blindspot runs.
The Cost of Repetition: Bureaucracy, Budget, and Burnout
Every year, ministries scramble to hit budget absorption targets—yet according to the Ministry of Finance, over 15% of allocated budgets remain unspent annually, and much of what is spent is rushed in the final quarter, leading to inefficiencies and waste. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) mirror this pattern: a 2024 BPK audit found that over 60% of SOEs use identical financial reporting templates year after year, with minimal adaptation to changing market realities or strategic needs.
Meanwhile, grand national plans—like Indonesia’s RPJMN or “Making Indonesia 4.0”—rarely translate into deep institutional transformation. The World Bank’s 2023 review noted that less than 30% of flagship reform initiatives achieve full implementation, often stalling due to bureaucratic inertia and fragmented execution.
This repetition isn’t just a sign of stagnation—it’s a signal of systemic decay. The cost is invisible but immense:
- Misallocated capital (with an estimated 20–25% of public investment projects underperforming or delayed).
- Demoralized talent (as shown by a 2023 BRIN survey where 58% of civil servants reported feeling disengaged or undervalued)
- Lost strategic advantage as Indonesia falls behind regional peers in innovation and institutional agility.
Conclusion: Break the Pattern Before It Breaks Us
Just like an employee can clock 20 years of repetition and call it experience, a nation can celebrate 80 years of independence while still living in the shadow of its old operating system. Indonesia doesn’t need another round of reforms—it needs a reprogramming.
- We don’t need to manage budgets better. We need to direct capital more strategically.
- We don’t need to mimic anyone. We need to own and run our own playbook.
- Experience means nothing without reinvention.
- Age means little without insight.
- And repetition, no matter how celebrated, will never produce transformation.
Let Indonesia’s 80th year be the one where we break the cycle—and begin, for the first time, to become a developed country by our own definition.