Abstract
Too many people read one number and think they’ve read the whole economy. Manufacturing PMI below 50? Sure, it might be signals contraction in factories, but it’s only a slice of the pie. Indonesia’s economy is not a one-trick manufacturing story: it’s driven by consumption, public investment, services, agriculture, and now a serious push in strategic capital deployment. We miss that, we miss the real engine. In Q2 2025, GDP still grew 5.12%, not because PMI lied, but because the rest of the machine was firing: social welfare pumping demand, housing and infrastructure rolling out, food reserves stabilising prices, and investment pouring into key sectors. Manufacturing is strategicly important, but it’s just one instrument in the orchestra. If we only listen to that, we’ll call the whole performance a failure when the rest is playing fine. Economic modelling needs to capture the whole score: capital flows, sector output, policy impact not just the easiest, loudest or the most obvious note.